ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has released its predictions for the 2026 college football season, and the outlook for two Big 12 rivals, BYU and Utah, is promising. Both teams are expected to be competitive in the conference and have a shot at the championship.
BYU, with a 13.1 FPI score, is projected to have a strong season. They are ranked No. 20 nationally and second in the Big 12, with a projected 8.7 wins. The Cougars have a 1.4% chance of going undefeated, a 93.1% chance of achieving six wins, and a 16.5% chance of winning the Big 12. Their odds of making the College Football Playoff (CFP) and the national championship game are 25.7% and 2.2%, respectively, with a 0.7% chance of winning the national championship. This is an improvement from last year, where BYU was projected for 8.0 wins and a 12.6% chance of making the CFP.
The Cougars' strength of schedule is a notable improvement, ranking ninth in the Big 12. Last year, BYU's strength of schedule was 74th, with only one Big 12 team, Houston, lower. This year, they host Notre Dame, ranked No. 3 in the FPI, and play Utah, ranked No. 31, in a key conference game. Their highest-rated Big 12 home opponent is Arizona, ranked No. 34.
Utah, with an 8.5 FPI score, is also projected to have a successful season. They are ranked No. 31 nationally and third in the Big 12, with a projected 7.7 wins. The Utes have a 0.4% chance of going undefeated, an 83.7% chance of achieving six wins, and a 5.9% chance of winning the Big 12. Their odds of making the CFP and the national championship game are 11.1% and 0.6%, respectively, with a 0.2% chance of winning the national championship. Last year, Utah was projected for 6.4 wins and a 67.3% chance of becoming bowl eligible.
The Utes' strength of schedule is 13th in the Big 12, which is favorable for a team returning several key players. While their overall strength of schedule wasn't much higher last season, it was notably higher than this year. Utah won't face the conference's highest-ranked team, Texas Tech, and their highest-rated Big 12 opponent is BYU, ranked No. 20.
In nonconference play, Utah's toughest opponent will be Arkansas from the SEC, ranked No. 47 in the FPI. The Utes host Arkansas on September 12th. These projections highlight the potential for both BYU and Utah to have strong seasons and contend for conference titles, with the Cougars having a slight edge in national championship odds.
However, it's important to note that the FPI is just one metric and should be considered alongside other factors. The teams' actual performance may vary, and the conference's competitiveness could change throughout the season. Nonetheless, these predictions provide an interesting insight into the potential outcomes of the 2026 college football season for these two Big 12 rivals.
