As the summer heat rises, fantasy baseball managers are faced with a crucial task: navigating the ebb and flow of player performance. The key to success lies in identifying players whose recent hot streaks might be fleeting, and those who are poised to continue their upward trajectory. This week, we delve into the realm of buy, sell, and hold decisions, armed with insights from the past few months of data and a keen eye for emerging trends.
Buy: Unlocking Hidden Gems
JJ Wetherholt, 2B, STL
Wetherholt's recent slump has many fantasy managers scratching their heads. His power output has dried up, but his underlying metrics remain solid. The key to understanding Wetherholt's situation lies in recognizing the natural streaky nature of power. Even the most prolific home run hitters experience periods of clumped and spread-out power events. Wetherholt's current slump is a perfect example of this phenomenon. Despite his recent struggles, his process stats indicate that he hasn't fundamentally changed. He remains a solid five-category contributor, and his current undervaluation in redraft leagues presents an opportunity for savvy managers to capitalize. Personally, I think Wetherholt's rebound is imminent, and his current price tag makes him an attractive buy for those seeking a potential breakout candidate.
Brandon Nimmo, OF, TEX
Nimmo's performance has been a source of intrigue, with his actual stats contrasting sharply with his expected numbers. Statcast's expected stats suggest that Nimmo has been one of the unluckiest players in baseball this year. His actual batting average and slugging percentage, while underwhelming, are within his expected range. However, the story changes when we delve into the expected stats. Since the start of May, Nimmo's actual numbers have been abysmal, with a .205 AVG and .333 SLG. In contrast, his expected stats paint a different picture, with a .271 xAVG and .535 xSLG. This discrepancy raises questions about the reliability of expected stats and the impact of luck on player performance. While Nimmo's recent struggles are concerning, his hard-hit rate and barrel rate suggest that he might be due for a rebound. In my opinion, Nimmo's current price tag makes him a buy for those seeking a potential turnaround.
Dustin May, SP, STL
May's recent performances have been a sight to behold, with his ERA and FIP trending downward. His last five starts have been a testament to his improved command and pitch selection. May's increased use of the cutter and slider, coupled with his ace-like strikeout and walk rates, has transformed him into a force on the mound. While it's too early to definitively state that May has turned a corner, his recent performances have been a welcome sight for fantasy managers. The price for May's services is likely to rise, making him a buy for those seeking a potential breakout starter.
Sell: Navigating the Declining Stars
Christian Yelich, OF, MIL
Yelich's recent struggles have been a source of concern for fantasy managers. His power output has dried up, and his average is being propped up by a high BABIP. While Yelich has outperformed his expected stats in the past, his current performance suggests that his decline is more than just a temporary slump. His high strikeout rate and the fact that he's not hitting the ball as hard as usual are cause for concern. In my opinion, Yelich's current price tag makes him a sell for those seeking to capitalize on his decline before it continues.
Jung Hoo Lee, OF, SFG
Lee's recent hot streak has been a source of intrigue, with his average soaring above .400 over the last month. However, his approach is all about putting the ball in play, which can lead to both showers of hits and random droughts. While Lee's BABIP has been high, his barrel, hard-hit, and contact rates have remained consistent. This suggests that his recent success is not just a fluke. However, his lack of power and low walk rate make him a risky buy. In my opinion, Lee's current price tag makes him a sell for those seeking a more reliable option.
Hold: Navigating the Middle Ground
Casey Schmitt, OF, SFG
Schmitt's season has been a rollercoaster, with his performance fluctuating between part-time player and star. While his recent hot streak has been impressive, it's difficult to believe that he's suddenly 40% better than league average. Schmitt's improvement in exit velocity and launch angle suggests that his recent success might be real. However, his primary role as a DH and left fielder, coupled with his limited experience at other positions, makes him a hold for those seeking a potential breakout candidate.
Jake McCarthy, OF, COL
McCarthy's career has been a rollercoaster, with him sometimes looking like a huge value and other times a non-factor. However, his recent performances have been a welcome sight, with him settling into a league-average hitter with a lot of speed. While he's not a power asset, his ability to lead off and steal bases makes him a valuable addition to any fantasy team. In my opinion, McCarthy's current price tag makes him a hold for those seeking a reliable, low-risk option.
Ryan Weathers, SP, NYY
Weathers' recent performances have been a source of intrigue, with him looking like a breakout candidate for the first part of the year. However, his recent struggles have raised questions about his long-term potential. Weathers' home run issue has bitten him, and his K-rate has trended downward. While I remain optimistic that he can keep most of his gains, his recent performances have been a cause for concern. In my opinion, Weathers' current price tag makes him a hold for those seeking a potential breakout starter, but his recent struggles should be a warning sign for fantasy managers.
