The 2016 MLB Draft, a decade ago, is a fascinating case study in the unpredictability of talent evaluation and player development. It's a draft class that, on the surface, might not seem like it produced much, but a deeper dive reveals some intriguing stories and trends. Personally, I think it's a perfect example of why we should always approach these annual events with a healthy dose of skepticism and an understanding that the true impact of a draft can take years to unfold.
The Top Picks: A Tale of Two Catchers
Will Smith, taken by the Dodgers in the sandwich round, and Pete Alonso, selected by the Mets in the second round, top this redraft. Both players were overlooked initially, with Smith not even being the highest-drafted player on his college team. Yet, they've proven to be the class's most valuable assets. Smith's defensive prowess and ability to make contact, coupled with his power development, make him a prime example of player development success. Alonso, on the other hand, showcases the importance of recognizing potential power hitters, even if their college stats don't immediately reflect it.
Redrafting the First Round
In this redraft, I've reshuffled the top 30 picks based on players' performance and potential over the last decade. It's an exercise that highlights the subjective nature of talent evaluation. For instance, Bryan Reynolds, originally a second-round pick, was ranked highly by me back then, and his subsequent success with the Pirates validates that assessment. On the other hand, players like Bo Bichette, despite a slow start with the Yankees, have shown their potential, and it's important not to write off such talents prematurely.
The Late Bloomers and Surprising Success Stories
One of the most interesting aspects of this draft class is the number of late-round picks who have exceeded expectations. Corbin Burnes, a fourth-round pick, became a Cy Young winner, and Zac Gallen, a third-rounder, had a stellar career before injuries slowed him down. These players challenge the notion that only early picks can make an impact. Similarly, Tommy Edman, selected in the sixth round, showcases the importance of scouting and player development, as the Cardinals saw potential in his defensive abilities and range.
Injuries and the Impact on Careers
Injuries have played a significant role in the careers of many players from this class. Braxton Garrett, once a highly touted high school pitcher, has dealt with constant injuries, yet his command and feel for pitching have kept him in the game. This raises a deeper question: how much can we truly predict a player's longevity and success based on their draft position and initial talent?
The Impact of Player Development and Organizational Philosophy
Teams like the Dodgers and Cardinals stand out for their player development efforts. The Dodgers' success with Will Smith and Tony Gonsolin, despite modest bonuses, highlights their ability to identify and nurture talent. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have a knack for finding gems in later rounds, as seen with Zac Gallen and Tommy Edman. This suggests that organizational philosophy and player development strategies can significantly impact a player's career trajectory.
Conclusion: A Draft Class of Surprises
The 2016 MLB Draft, in retrospect, is a testament to the complexities of talent evaluation and player development. It's a reminder that draft position doesn't always correlate with success and that late-round picks can become stars. This class also underscores the importance of organizational philosophy and player development strategies in shaping a player's career. As we approach the 2026 MLB Draft, it's a valuable lesson to keep in mind: every player has potential, and it's up to us to recognize and nurture it.
